Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.78
6+ Goals
8%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 30% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.4pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olimpija Ljubljana EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.36/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.57
+2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 479 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olimpija Ljubljana
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Maribor
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.03.2025 Maribor Maribor 1-0 HT 0-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
10.11.2024 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 0-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
25.08.2024 Maribor Maribor 1-1 HT 1-1 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
11.05.2024 Maribor Maribor 2-1 HT 1-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
17.04.2024 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
03.12.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 3-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olimpija Ljubljana
1-2
AWAY Maribor
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor nicked a narrow win over Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 31% / 29% — and on the day Maribor made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Olimpija Ljubljana had 61% of the ball to Maribor's 39%, shots finished 13-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.50 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?

Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olimpija Ljubljana win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Olimpija Ljubljana 40%, draw 31%, Maribor 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Olimpija Ljubljana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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SLVN More Slovenia - 1st Division
3 May 2025
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