Alanyaspor 1-1 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.6
6+ Goals
10%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 27% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.2
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
17%
5.2
X/2
9%
6.72
X/X
11%
4.5
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.78
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.52/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.61
-4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.6 Crosses 17.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alanyaspor
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kayserispor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.39 xG 1.03
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
336 Passes 404
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2024 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
16.03.2024 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
06.11.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
20.05.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-4 HT 0-2 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
28.12.2022 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-1 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
07.03.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-2 HT 1-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alanyaspor
1-1
AWAY Kayserispor
1.21 xG 0.61
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
401 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alanyaspor and Kayserispor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Alanyaspor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Alanyaspor had 56% of the ball to Kayserispor's 44%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.21 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alanyaspor had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alanyaspor and 0.83 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?

Alanyaspor 1-1 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alanyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alanyaspor 43%, draw 29%, Kayserispor 28%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alanyaspor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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