Defensor Sporting 0-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-1.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +3%
1.40/2.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.81
+28% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
221 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.11.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
27.07.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
19.05.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.10.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
23.07.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.02.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-2 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
0-1
AWAY CA Penarol
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol squeezed past Defensor Sporting 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; CA Penarol found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 54% of the ball to CA Penarol's 46%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.83 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol?

Defensor Sporting 0-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 34%, draw 28%, CA Penarol 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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