San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒00:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
33%
2.66
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.41
Over 2.5
42%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.0
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.96
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.81
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
9%
6.16
X/2
11%
5.41
X/X
16%
3.09
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
11%
3.92
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
31%
+5.3pp
33%
Draw
34%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
67%
-8.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
33%
+8.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.6pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.06/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.00
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
236 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.2 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Independiente
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 0.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
287 Passes 262
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2025 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 0-1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
08.03.2025 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-2 HT 1-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.08.2024 Independiente Independiente 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
02.04.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.06.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
06.12.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
1-2
AWAY Independiente
1.95 xG 1.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
25 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
386 Passes 264
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 23
29 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente nicked a narrow win over San Lorenzo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 33% / 31% — and on the day Independiente made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 58% of the ball to Independiente's 42%, shots finished 25-13, expected goals 1.95 to 1.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.83 for Independiente.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Independiente?

San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 36%, draw 33%, Independiente 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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