San Lorenzo vs Independiente Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
San Lorenzo v Independiente — Team-Based Signals
San Lorenzo vs Independiente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Independiente
ARJ
1-1
HT 0-1
Independiente
ARJ
1-1
HT 0-0
San Lorenzo
ARJ
San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente nicked a narrow win over San Lorenzo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 33% / 31% — and on the day Independiente made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, San Lorenzo had 58% of the ball to Independiente's 42%, shots finished 25-13, expected goals 1.95 to 1.83.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.83 for Independiente.
What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 36%, draw 33%, Independiente 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.