Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.36/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.05
+17% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Cerro Largo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2025 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
08.02.2025 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 4-1 HT 3-0 Progreso Progreso URU
30.11.2024 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
04.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.10.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
19.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Cerro Largo
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo nicked a narrow win over Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerro Largo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Progreso had 57% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 43%, shots finished 18-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Progreso and 1.67 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Cerro Largo?

Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Progreso 34%, draw 25%, Cerro Largo 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Largo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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3 May 2026
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