Progreso vs Cerro Largo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Progreso v Cerro Largo — Team-Based Signals
Progreso vs Cerro Largo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Progreso
URU
0-0
HT 0-0
Cerro Largo
URU
Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo — Actual Match Statistics
Cerro Largo nicked a narrow win over Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerro Largo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Progreso had 57% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 43%, shots finished 18-11.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Progreso and 1.67 for Cerro Largo.
What was the final score of Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Progreso vs Cerro Largo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Progreso 34%, draw 25%, Cerro Largo 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.