Lugano 3-1 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.15
Over 2.5
44%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 30% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.54
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.75
X/2
10%
5.78
X/X
13%
5.14
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
14%
3.57
2/X
10%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.6pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.2pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +24%
1.24/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.33
-21% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
15.8 Crosses 20.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Servette
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.85
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
396 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 Servette Servette 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
25.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-2 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
18.02.2024 Servette Servette 2-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
17.12.2023 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
08.10.2023 Lugano Lugano 0-1 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
15.04.2023 Servette Servette 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
3-1
AWAY Servette
0.69 xG 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
422 Passes 283
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano beat Servette 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugano had 58% of the ball to Servette's 42%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.69 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lugano and 1.17 for Servette.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Servette?

Lugano 3-1 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lugano 38%, draw 31%, Servette 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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