Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Hannover 96 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.43
6+ Goals
11%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.4
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
13%
4.12
X/2
12%
8.21
X/X
15%
5.1
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
9%
6.21
2/X
8%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
52%
-11.6pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.5pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Hannover 96 II EU Bookmakers 27%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+6% / +128% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Hannover 96 II
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Hannover 96 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue edged past Hannover 96 II 2-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Erzgebirge Aue found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 48% of the ball to Hannover 96 II's 52%, shots finished 12-12.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Hannover 96 II?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Hannover 96 II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Hannover 96 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 40%, draw 30%, Hannover 96 II 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
3 Aug 2024
15:00 Sandhausen vs Osnabrück Analysis →
15:00 Borussia Dortmund II vs Unterhaching Analysis →
15:00 Rot-Weiss Essen vs Alemannia Aachen Analysis →
15:00 Verl vs Wehen Wiesbaden Analysis →
17:30 Hansa Rostock vs Stuttgart II Analysis →