Rot-Weiss Essen 1-2 Alemannia Aachen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.63
6+ Goals
8%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 29% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.85
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
19%
4.53
X/2
9%
6.83
X/X
11%
4.71
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.05
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Alemannia Aachen EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.65/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.20
+3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Alemannia Aachen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.07.2022 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-3 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen HAZ
10.04.2022 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-1 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen ALMBÖL
30.10.2021 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 HT 1-1 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen ALMBÖL
15.05.2021 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 HT 0-0 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen ALMBÖL
29.11.2020 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-1 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen ALMBÖL
16.11.2019 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 3-0 HT 2-0 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
1-2
AWAY Alemannia Aachen
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Alemannia Aachen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alemannia Aachen squeezed past Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rot-Weiss Essen at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 51% of the ball to Alemannia Aachen's 49%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rot-Weiss Essen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 0.83 for Alemannia Aachen.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Alemannia Aachen?

Rot-Weiss Essen 1-2 Alemannia Aachen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Alemannia Aachen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rot-Weiss Essen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 48%, draw 26%, Alemannia Aachen 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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