Estudiantes Caseros 1-3 San Martin Tucuman — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
29%
2.66
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.25
Over 2.5
33%
3.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
28%
2.75
No
72%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
45%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.8pp
29%
Draw
35%
-5.9pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.1pp
67%
Under 2.5
76%
-9.9pp
33%
Over 2.5
24%
+9.9pp
28%
BTTS Yes
32%
-3.8pp
72%
BTTS No
68%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estudiantes Caseros EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY San Martin Tucuman EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.98/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/0.65
-7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +74%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estudiantes Caseros
0W-3D-1L
AWAY San Martin Tucuman
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 7
18.03.2024 San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 2-0 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros ARJPBN
17.07.2022 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros 0-0 HT 0-0 San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman ARJPBN
01.08.2021 San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 0-0 HT 0-0 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros ARJPBN
20.03.2021 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros 1-1 HT 1-0 San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Estudiantes Caseros vs San Martin Tucuman
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Martin Tucuman saw off Estudiantes Caseros 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Estudiantes Caseros at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (72%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, San Martin Tucuman led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Estudiantes Caseros and 0.75 for San Martin Tucuman.

What was the final score of Estudiantes Caseros vs San Martin Tucuman?

Estudiantes Caseros 1-3 San Martin Tucuman in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estudiantes Caseros vs San Martin Tucuman?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estudiantes Caseros win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Estudiantes Caseros 42%, draw 29%, San Martin Tucuman 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estudiantes Caseros) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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