Maritimo 3-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
45%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-9.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 58%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
233 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.29 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
211 Passes 288
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
21.01.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 3-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
12.08.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
12.03.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 1-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
31.10.2020 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
31.03.2019 Maritimo Maritimo 3-2 HT 3-1 Nacional Nacional POR
10.11.2018 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
3-0
AWAY Nacional
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo cruised past Nacional 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maritimo had 46% of the ball to Nacional's 54%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Maritimo and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Nacional?

Maritimo 3-0 Nacional in the Friendlies on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 27%, draw 28%, Nacional 45%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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