Atlante 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
17%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
56%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
17%
Away Win
19%
-2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.0pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlante EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 22%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.74/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.75
-2% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlante
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
09.02.2025 Atlante Atlante 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
25.08.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlante Atlante MEK2
14.03.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 1-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
06.08.2023 Atlante Atlante 2-2 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
31.03.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
29.08.2022 Atlante Atlante 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Atlante vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlante and Tepatitlán de Morelos shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Atlante carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlante had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlante and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Atlante vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Atlante 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlante vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlante win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atlante 59%, draw 24%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atlante), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlante) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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