Chernomorets 1-2 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.1pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.34/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.98
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
Crosses 6.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chernomorets
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2025 Chernomorets Chernomorets 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
13.07.2024 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-0 HT 0-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
03.03.2024 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-0 HT 0-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
12.08.2023 Chernomorets Chernomorets 2-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chernomorets
1-2
AWAY Arsenal Tula
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chernomorets vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Tula edged past Chernomorets 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Arsenal Tula found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chernomorets had 47% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 53%, shots finished 10-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arsenal Tula led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chernomorets and 1.00 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of Chernomorets vs Arsenal Tula?

Chernomorets 1-2 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chernomorets vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chernomorets win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chernomorets 40%, draw 27%, Arsenal Tula 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chernomorets) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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