Salisbury 1-2 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 3 Sep 2024

Salisbury
1-2 HT 1-2
Chesham United
📅03/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2024/2025

Salisbury vs Chesham United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Salisbury v Chesham United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salisbury EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.00
-25% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
258 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Salisbury vs Chesham United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salisbury
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Chesham United
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Salisbury Salisbury 3-1 HT 1-0 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
15.04.2023 Chesham United Chesham United 3-1 HT 0-0 Salisbury Salisbury İNGNLP
12.11.2022 Salisbury Salisbury 1-2 HT 1-1 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
12.02.2022 Chesham United Chesham United 4-0 HT 0-0 Salisbury Salisbury İNGNLP
19.10.2021 Salisbury Salisbury 1-2 HT 0-0 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP

Salisbury 1-2 Chesham United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salisbury
1-2
AWAY Chesham United
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Salisbury vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United nicked a narrow win over Salisbury 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Chesham United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Salisbury had 59% of the ball to Chesham United's 41%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Chesham United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Salisbury and 2.40 for Chesham United.

What was the final score of Salisbury vs Chesham United?

Salisbury 1-2 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 03/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salisbury vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salisbury win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Salisbury 36%, draw 29%, Chesham United 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Salisbury) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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