Carlisle United 1-2 Nottingham Forest U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 3 Sep 2024

📅03/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.51
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
8.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 28% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest U21 EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.69/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.89
+29% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -41%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 82%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
27.6 Crosses 5.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest U21
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.01 xG 0.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
421 Passes 284
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.10.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-2 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest U21 Nottingham Forest U21 İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
1-2
AWAY Nottingham Forest U21
2.21 xG 0.52
61% Ball Possession 39%
25 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 0
526 Passes 320
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Nottingham Forest U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest U21 nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 61% of the ball to Nottingham Forest U21's 39%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 2.21 to 0.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Nottingham Forest U21?

Carlisle United 1-2 Nottingham Forest U21 in the England - Futbol League Cup on 03/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Nottingham Forest U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 41%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest U21 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carlisle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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