Newport County 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 3 Sep 2024

📅03/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 43%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.01/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.00
-36% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
258 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.1 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.15
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
195 Passes 273
60% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 3-2 HT 2-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
10.10.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İNTK
01.05.2021 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
19.01.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
08.09.2020 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İNTK
01.01.2020 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-2
AWAY Cheltenham Town
0.53 xG 2.14
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 10
308 Passes 431
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town nicked a narrow win over Newport County 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Cheltenham Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Newport County had 43% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 57%, shots finished 9-21, expected goals 0.53 to 2.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cheltenham Town's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Newport County and 1.00 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Cheltenham Town?

Newport County 1-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - Futbol League Cup on 03/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newport County 33%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cheltenham Town), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNTK More England - Futbol League Cup
3 Sep 2024
21:00 Gillingham vs Peterborough United Analysis →
21:00 Doncaster Rovers vs Huddersfield Town Analysis →
21:00 Fleetwood Town vs Aston Villa U21 Analysis →
21:00 Carlisle United vs Nottingham Forest U21 Analysis →
21:00 Leyton Orient vs Arsenal U21 Analysis →
21:00 Exeter City vs Swindon Town Analysis →