Exeter City 2-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 3 Sep 2024

📅03/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
35%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.0
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
57%
-18.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
36%
Away Win
20%
+15.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 23%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.52/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.94
+32% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
377 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 69%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
19.4 Crosses 12.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Swindon Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.06
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
259 Passes 297
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.11.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İNTK
08.03.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 3-1 HT 2-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
05.02.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
06.10.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-4 HT 0-2 Exeter City Exeter City İNTK
01.02.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 2-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
17.08.2019 Exeter City Exeter City 1-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
2-1
AWAY Swindon Town
1.29 xG 0.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
373 Passes 390
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 7
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City squeezed past Swindon Town 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Exeter City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Exeter City had 49% of the ball to Swindon Town's 51%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.29 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Exeter City and 1.33 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Swindon Town?

Exeter City 2-1 Swindon Town in the England - Futbol League Cup on 03/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 39%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Exeter City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Exeter City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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