Cheltenham Town 3-2 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

Cheltenham Town
3-2 HT 2-2
Newport County
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Cheltenham Town vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 27% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
20%
4.04
X/2
11%
9.22
X/X
15%
4.96
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
9%
7.13
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cheltenham Town v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 24%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.58/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.38
-24% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 69%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.4 Crosses 14.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Cheltenham Town vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Newport County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.34 xG 1.20
59% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 Passes 185
70% Pass Accuracy 58%
21 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.10.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İNTK
01.05.2021 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
19.01.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
08.09.2020 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İNTK
01.01.2020 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
12.11.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 4-7 HT 3-5 Newport County Newport County İNTK

Cheltenham Town 3-2 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
3-2
AWAY Newport County
1.73 xG 1.79
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
204 Passes 234
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town nicked a narrow win over Newport County 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cheltenham Town as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 48% of the ball to Newport County's 52%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.73 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cheltenham Town and 2.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Newport County?

Cheltenham Town 3-2 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 49%, draw 25%, Newport County 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cheltenham Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
10 Aug 2024
17:00 Doncaster Rovers vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
17:00 AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester Analysis →
17:00 Walsall vs Morecambe Analysis →
17:00 Fleetwood Town vs Grimsby Town Analysis →
17:00 Barrow vs Crewe Alexandra Analysis →
17:00 Gillingham vs Carlisle United Analysis →