Barrow 1-0 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.75
6+ Goals
10%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 31% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.68
X/2
9%
6.57
X/X
9%
4.5
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
14%
4.84
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.2pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.23/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.20
-4% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
270 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 75%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.9 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.92 xG 1.76
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
218 Passes 303
65% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
20.01.2024 Barrow Barrow 1-3 HT 1-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
22.12.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-3 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
07.04.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-0 HT 2-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
29.10.2022 Barrow Barrow 3-0 HT 2-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
1-0
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.71 xG 0.40
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 4
200 Passes 368
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow nicked a narrow win over Crewe Alexandra 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barrow as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Barrow had 40% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 60%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 0.71 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Barrow and 1.75 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Crewe Alexandra?

Barrow 1-0 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Barrow 43%, draw 26%, Crewe Alexandra 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barrow), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barrow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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