Walsall 1-0 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 28% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.05
X/2
9%
9.3
X/X
10%
5.41
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.95
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · 2/2 at 6.95 — our 17% vs market 10.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+10.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Walsall EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
1.92/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.61
-11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 65%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.5 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Walsall
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Morecambe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.59 xG 1.02
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
274 Passes 220
68% Pass Accuracy 63%
21 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.02.2024 Walsall Walsall 3-0 HT 2-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
05.08.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 2-1 HT 1-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
01.05.2021 Walsall Walsall 0-2 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
19.01.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
28.01.2020 Walsall Walsall 0-2 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
17.09.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 0-1 HT 0-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Walsall
1-0
AWAY Morecambe
0.45 xG 0.11
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 0
207 Passes 358
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 2
33 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Walsall vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Walsall squeezed past Morecambe 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Walsall as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Walsall had 41% of the ball to Morecambe's 59%, shots finished 8-4, expected goals 0.45 to 0.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Walsall and 1.17 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Walsall vs Morecambe?

Walsall 1-0 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Walsall vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Walsall win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Walsall 45%, draw 24%, Morecambe 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Walsall), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Walsall) ✓ Under 2.5
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