Gillingham 4-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

Gillingham
4-1 HT 1-0
Carlisle United
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Gillingham vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.92
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 32% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.74
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.5
X/1
15%
4.29
X/2
9%
6.97
X/X
14%
4.78
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.34
2/X
9%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
48%
-10.2pp
32%
Draw
25%
+7.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gillingham v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.71/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.12
-22% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
224 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 64%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
26.2 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Gillingham vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.53 xG 0.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
218 Passes 195
61% Pass Accuracy 58%
19 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.03.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
27.08.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
19.12.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-1 HT 2-0 Gillingham Gillingham FAK
02.12.2017 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United FAK
08.02.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
02.11.2013 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1

Gillingham 4-1 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
4-1
AWAY Carlisle United
1.24 xG 1.79
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
192 Passes 252
61% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham swept aside Carlisle United 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 32% / 30% — and on the day Gillingham made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gillingham had 46% of the ball to Carlisle United's 54%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.24 to 1.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carlisle United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gillingham and 1.00 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Carlisle United?

Gillingham 4-1 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 38%, draw 32%, Carlisle United 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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