AFC Wimbledon 4-2 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.69
6+ Goals
11%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 31% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.75
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
10%
4.43
X/2
12%
7.14
X/X
15%
4.62
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.36
2/X
9%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.32/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.54
+4% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 68%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.6 Crosses 15.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Colchester
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
2.23 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
228 Passes 255
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
29.12.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 5-3 HT 2-2 Colchester Colchester İN2
15.08.2023 Colchester Colchester 0-2 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
29.12.2022 Colchester Colchester 1-2 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
01.10.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
4-2
AWAY Colchester
2.30 xG 0.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
204 Passes 266
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon beat Colchester 4-2. Half-time: 3-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day AFC Wimbledon made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 45% of the ball to Colchester's 55%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.30 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.25 for Colchester.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester?

AFC Wimbledon 4-2 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 40%, draw 29%, Colchester 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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