Chelsea 4-2 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

Chelsea
4-2 HT 1-0
Gent
📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.3
Draw
23%
5.15
Away
23%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.96
Over
53%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
21%
7.06
2-3
43%
2.2
4-5
25%
2.46
6+
11%
4.79
Value flag · 0-1 at 7.06 — our 21% vs market 10.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.41
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
4%
22.7
X/1
17%
3.69
X/2
9%
22.7
X/X
14%
9.56
2/1
9%
20.45
2/2
7%
15.4
2/X
4%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Chelsea win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
72%
-18.2pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.5pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+11.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
30%
+16.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
70%
-16.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 14%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.12/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.73
-14% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -44%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
495 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
13.0 Crosses 11.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
4-2
AWAY Gent
1.92 xG 1.11
70% Ball Possession 30%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
712 Passes 260
93% Pass Accuracy 82%
45 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea got the better of Gent 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Chelsea had 70% of the ball to Gent's 30%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.92 to 1.11.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Gent?

Chelsea 4-2 Gent in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 54%, draw 23%, Gent 23%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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