Legia Varşova 1-0 Real Betis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
38%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.74
Over
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.9
2-3
37%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.03
6+
9%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.9 — our 35% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.79
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
18%
7.29
X/2
18%
4.17
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
11%
2.68
2/X
4%
14.6
Value flag · X/1 at 7.29 — our 18% vs market 9.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
26%
+11.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
38%
Away Win
48%
-10.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Betis EU Bookmakers 52%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
257 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-0
AWAY Real Betis
1.36 xG 0.77
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
190 Passes 518
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Real Betis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova edged past Real Betis 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Legia Varşova found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 32% of the ball to Real Betis's 68%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 1.36 to 0.77.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Real Betis?

Legia Varşova 1-0 Real Betis in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Real Betis?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Betis win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 37%, draw 25%, Real Betis 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Real Betis) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Betis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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