Omonia Nicosia 4-0 Vikingur R. — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.45
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.03
Over
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.83
2-3
44%
1.83
4-5
21%
3.2
6+
12%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.7
X/1
18%
3.6
X/2
6%
13.45
X/X
10%
6.02
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
9%
10.8
2/X
7%
18.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Omonia Nicosia win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-7.7pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omonia Nicosia EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Vikingur R. EU Bookmakers 18%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
3.35/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
+73% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
40.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
30.0 Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omonia Nicosia
4-0
AWAY Vikingur R.
3.01 xG 0.62
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
553 Passes 359
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Omonia Nicosia vs Vikingur R.
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omonia Nicosia ran out comfortable winners over Vikingur R. 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Omonia Nicosia as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Omonia Nicosia had 59% of the ball to Vikingur R.'s 41%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 3.01 to 0.62.

What was the final score of Omonia Nicosia vs Vikingur R.?

Omonia Nicosia 4-0 Vikingur R. in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omonia Nicosia vs Vikingur R.?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omonia Nicosia win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Omonia Nicosia 57%, draw 22%, Vikingur R. 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Omonia Nicosia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Omonia Nicosia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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