Heidenheim 2-1 Olimpija Ljubljana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.82
Over
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No Pick
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.16
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.71
6+
11%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.03
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.85
X/1
15%
3.63
X/2
12%
10.6
X/X
10%
5.21
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
10%
8.79
2/X
7%
17.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.4pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana EU Bookmakers 21%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
3.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.65
+54% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
405 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.0 Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
2-1
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
1.89 xG 1.44
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
468 Passes 200
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Olimpija Ljubljana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim squeezed past Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Heidenheim as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 66% of the ball to Olimpija Ljubljana's 34%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.89 to 1.44.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Heidenheim 2-1 Olimpija Ljubljana in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 49%, draw 26%, Olimpija Ljubljana 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidenheim) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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