Dinamo Minsk 1-2 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.75
Over
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.94
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
21%
3.97
6+
9%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.94 — our 29% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.7
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
17%
5.27
X/2
11%
5.44
X/X
16%
4.38
2/1
9%
30.0
2/2
19%
3.88
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Minsk EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
Crosses 18.0
Yellow Cards 5.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Minsk
1-2
AWAY Hearts
0.54 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 7
345 Passes 349
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Minsk vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts squeezed past Dinamo Minsk 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Hearts found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dinamo Minsk had 49% of the ball to Hearts's 51%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.54 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Dinamo Minsk vs Hearts?

Dinamo Minsk 1-2 Hearts in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Minsk vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Minsk win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Minsk 38%, draw 27%, Hearts 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Minsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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