FC Copenhagen 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.61
Over Pick
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
19%
6.07
2-3
39%
2.08
4-5
30%
2.56
6+
12%
5.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.05
X/1
20%
3.65
X/2
9%
18.8
X/X
10%
8.56
2/1
9%
20.35
2/2
7%
13.2
2/X
6%
20.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
71%
-16.8pp
25%
Draw
17%
+7.1pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Copenhagen EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 15%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+34% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Copenhagen
1-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.37 xG 0.66
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
615 Passes 252
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH FC Copenhagen vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past FC Copenhagen 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was FC Copenhagen at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, FC Copenhagen had 68% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 32%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 1.37 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Copenhagen.

What was the final score of FC Copenhagen vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

FC Copenhagen 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Copenhagen vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Copenhagen win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split FC Copenhagen 54%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Copenhagen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Copenhagen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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