Fiorentina 2-0 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.11
Draw
19%
7.78
Away
19%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
34%
3.14
Over Pick
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
2.75
No
42%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1
16%
8.09
2-3
37%
2.31
4-5
32%
2.38
6+
15%
4.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
16%
3.47
X/2
8%
34.5
X/X
7%
16.4
2/1
12%
25.5
2/2
6%
34.5
2/X
6%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 12% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
84%
-22.4pp
19%
Draw
9%
+9.9pp
19%
Away Win
6%
+12.6pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.7pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
32%
+25.7pp
42%
BTTS No
68%
-25.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 9%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.42/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
-5% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -21%
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
498 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
41.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
32.6 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-0
AWAY The New Saints
3.36 xG 0.20
80% Ball Possession 20%
28 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 0
736 Passes 138
92% Pass Accuracy 66%
51 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina beat The New Saints 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fiorentina had 80% of the ball to The New Saints's 20%, shots finished 28-2, expected goals 3.36 to 0.20.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs The New Saints?

Fiorentina 2-0 The New Saints in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 62%, draw 19%, The New Saints 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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