LASK Linz 2-2 Djurgarden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.97
Over
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No Pick
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.61
2-3
40%
1.81
4-5
25%
3.34
6+
9%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.61 — our 26% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
21%
3.94
X/2
8%
9.18
X/X
10%
5.39
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
13%
7.0
2/X
6%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.18/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.85
+15% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 71%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
16.1 Crosses 9.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LASK Linz
2-2
AWAY Djurgarden
0.52 xG 0.96
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
353 Passes 479
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH LASK Linz vs Djurgarden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LASK Linz and Djurgarden couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was LASK Linz at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, LASK Linz had 43% of the ball to Djurgarden's 57%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.52 to 0.96.

What was the final score of LASK Linz vs Djurgarden?

LASK Linz 2-2 Djurgarden in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LASK Linz vs Djurgarden?

Before kick-off our model rated a LASK Linz win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split LASK Linz 51%, draw 24%, Djurgarden 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (LASK Linz) ✗ BTTS No
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