Molde 3-0 Larne FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
61%
1.16
Draw
22%
7.13
Away
17%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.63
Over
53%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.29
No
56%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
28%
6.13
2-3
35%
2.08
4-5
26%
2.56
6+
11%
5.63
Value flag · 0-1 at 6.13 — our 28% vs market 12.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.23
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
34.5
X/1
24%
3.36
X/2
7%
34.5
X/X
10%
12.0
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
6%
31.5
2/X
7%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Molde win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
82%
-20.8pp
22%
Draw
12%
+10.2pp
17%
Away Win
6%
+10.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
34%
+12.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
66%
-12.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.1pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Larne FC EU Bookmakers 8%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
2.01/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.03
-21% / +128% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +130%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
454 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 79%
48.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
35.4 Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
3-0
AWAY Larne FC
2.54 xG 0.09
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
672 Passes 283
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
51 Box Touches 2
15 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Molde vs Larne FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde swept aside Larne FC 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Molde had 67% of the ball to Larne FC's 33%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 2.54 to 0.09.

What was the final score of Molde vs Larne FC?

Molde 3-0 Larne FC in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Larne FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Molde 62%, draw 22%, Larne FC 17%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVKL More UEFA Europa Conference League
3 Oct 2024
00:00 Petrocub vs Pafos Analysis →
19:45 Cercle Brugge vs St. Gallen Analysis →
19:45 Omonia Nicosia vs Vikingur R. Analysis →
19:45 Heidenheim vs Olimpija Ljubljana Analysis →
19:45 FC Astana vs Backa Topola Analysis →
19:45 Legia Varşova vs Real Betis Analysis →