Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
30%
2.7
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.36
Over 2.5
42%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.33
No
56%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
30%
Draw
34%
-3.5pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
70%
-12.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
30%
+12.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
39%
+5.7pp
56%
BTTS No
61%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.21/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.39
+23% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.71 xG 1.04
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
256 Passes 305
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
24.07.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
27.01.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-4 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
11.04.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
09.10.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 2.17 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?

Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Cup on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 35%, draw 30%, Deportes Tolima 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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