Pau 3-1 Clermont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 3 Oct 2025

Pau
3-1 HT 3-0
Clermont
📅03/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2025/2026

Pau vs Clermont Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.23
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.11
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.26
X/2
6%
10.15
X/X
10%
5.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
2/2
10%
8.06
2/X
6%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pau v Clermont — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Clermont EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
2.04/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.61
+22% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
428 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
23.0 Crosses 15.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Pau vs Clermont Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Clermont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.56 xG 1.49
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
273 Passes 469
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.04.2025 Pau Pau 2-2 HT 1-1 Clermont Clermont FR2
16.08.2024 Clermont Clermont 2-2 HT 1-2 Pau Pau FR2
10.04.2021 Pau Pau 2-1 HT 0-1 Clermont Clermont FR2
05.12.2020 Clermont Clermont 3-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2

Pau 3-1 Clermont — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
3-1
AWAY Clermont
1.83 xG 0.76
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
370 Passes 450
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Pau vs Clermont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau got the better of Clermont 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pau as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pau had 46% of the ball to Clermont's 54%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 1.83 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pau and 2.00 for Clermont.

What was the final score of Pau vs Clermont?

Pau 3-1 Clermont in the France - Ligue 2 on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Clermont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Pau 56%, draw 23%, Clermont 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pau), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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