Parnu JK Vaprus 2-0 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +7%
1.26/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.73
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
07.04.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 3-1 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
21.10.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
22.07.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
13.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2-0
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus beat Tallinna Kalev 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Parnu JK Vaprus as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 39% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 61%, shots finished 7-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tallinna Kalev led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.50 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev?

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-0 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 41%, draw 25%, Tallinna Kalev 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Under 2.5
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