NK Varazdin 1-0 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
42%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.55
6+ Goals
7%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+2.6pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.9pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-7.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.0pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 54%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.54/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.00
+41% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
240 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 79%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
18.3 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.82 xG 1.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
269 Passes 350
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
27.02.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 5-0 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIRK
24.02.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
12.11.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-1 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.08.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-0
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.56 xG 0.79
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
303 Passes 383
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin squeezed past Hajduk Split 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 44% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 56%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.56 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for NK Varazdin and 2.17 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

NK Varazdin 1-0 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 26%, draw 32%, Hajduk Split 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hajduk Split) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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