BFC Daugavpils 3-3 Valmiera / BSS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
56%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
28%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+8.6pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.6pp
56%
Away Win
68%
-11.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 72%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -1%
0.57/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.09/0.96
-44% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.4
14.4 Crosses 29.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 2.14
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
178 Passes 392
63% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 4-1 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
01.06.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-6 HT 1-5 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
22.04.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
22.07.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
22.05.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-3
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
1.76 xG 2.46
29% Ball Possession 71%
11 Total Shots 34
6 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 10
142 Passes 470
62% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 50
8 Crosses 35
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils and Valmiera / BSS shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Valmiera / BSS carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 29% of the ball to Valmiera / BSS's 71%, shots finished 11-34, expected goals 1.76 to 2.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.83 for Valmiera / BSS.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS?

BFC Daugavpils 3-3 Valmiera / BSS in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 22%, draw 21%, Valmiera / BSS 56%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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