Toluca 2-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Nov 2024

Toluca
2-2
Leon
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Toluca vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.39
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
62%
-5.9pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.8pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
2.12/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.55
+28% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
373 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 80%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
15.0 Crosses 13.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Toluca vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Leon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.38
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 Passes 268
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
22.10.2023 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
29.01.2023 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
27.07.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.05.2022 Leon Leon 4-4 HT 3-3 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.10.2021 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK

Toluca 2-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
2-2
AWAY Leon
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
351 Passes 263
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca and Leon shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Toluca at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Toluca had 55% of the ball to Leon's 45%, shots finished 22-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Leon?

Toluca 2-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Toluca 56%, draw 21%, Leon 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5
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