Midtjylland 1-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 3 Nov 2025

📅03/11/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
21%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.51
Over
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
63%
1.46
No
37%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
39%
4-5
27%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
14%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
52%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
21%
Away Win
25%
-3.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
-1.4pp
37%
BTTS No
36%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -17%
2.06/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.54
+30% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
19.5 Crosses 20.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
3W-3D-0L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.83 xG 1.38
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
256 Passes 389
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.05.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 3-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
13.04.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
27.10.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
19.07.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.07.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 4-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
1-1
AWAY AGF Aarhus
0.92 xG 0.84
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
314 Passes 137
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
23 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland and AGF Aarhus shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Midtjylland at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (63%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Midtjylland had 65% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 35%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 0.92 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Midtjylland and 0.50 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Midtjylland 1-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 03/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 53%, draw 25%, AGF Aarhus 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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