AGF Aarhus 1-1 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.81
6+ Goals
10%
15.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.12
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
15%
5.02
X/2
8%
6.7
X/X
6%
4.59
2/1
12%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.87
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 33%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.64/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.57
+18% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
347 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
21.9 Crosses 18.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Midtjylland
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.63 xG 1.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 Passes 246
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
19.07.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.07.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 4-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ
12.05.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
25.02.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-3 HT 1-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-1
AWAY Midtjylland
0.84 xG 1.90
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
374 Passes 216
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus and Midtjylland shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 60% of the ball to Midtjylland's 40%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.84 to 1.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 2.17 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

AGF Aarhus 1-1 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 46%, draw 24%, Midtjylland 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AGF Aarhus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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