Midtjylland 2-0 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
12%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.92
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
14%
4.9
X/2
11%
6.83
X/X
9%
4.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.45
2/2
13%
4.64
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +21%
1.55/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.27
+35% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +37%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
337 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.2 Crosses 20.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
4W-2D-0L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.74 xG 1.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
251 Passes 320
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.07.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 4-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ
12.05.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
25.02.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-3 HT 1-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
03.09.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
2-0
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.33 xG 0.32
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 12
194 Passes 411
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland beat AGF Aarhus 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Midtjylland had 35% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 65%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.33 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Midtjylland and 0.83 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Midtjylland 2-0 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 47%, draw 23%, AGF Aarhus 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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