Midtjylland 3-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
3.07
6+ Goals
15%
9.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.36
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
17%
4.59
X/2
8%
8.71
X/X
9%
5.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.35
2/2
9%
6.29
2/X
6%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
52%
+2.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.8pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.96/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.48
+13% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
430 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.3 Crosses 21.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
4W-2D-0L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.65 xG 1.16
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
250 Passes 327
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
27.10.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
19.07.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.07.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 4-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ
12.05.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
3-1
AWAY AGF Aarhus
3.89 xG 0.71
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
406 Passes 273
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland beat AGF Aarhus 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Midtjylland had 56% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 44%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 3.89 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Midtjylland and 0.50 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Midtjylland 3-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 54%, draw 22%, AGF Aarhus 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN More Denmark - Süperlig
4 May 2025
15:00 Lyngby vs Viborg Analysis →
15:00 Silkeborg IF vs Vejle Analysis →
17:00 Brondby vs Kopenhag Analysis →