Napoli 1-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 3 Dec 2025

Napoli
1 - 1 HT 1 - 0 AET 1-1 · Pen 9-8
Cagliari
📅03/12/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
68%
1.45
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
11%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.78
Over
49%
1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.59
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.96
2-3
47%
1.77
4-5
22%
3.8
6+
5%
16.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.79
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
4%
18.65
X/1
22%
3.73
X/2
4%
14.15
X/X
13%
5.43
2/1
3%
26.0
2/2
6%
13.1
2/X
4%
21.8
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Napoli The Market 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari The Market 16%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Bad
1.87 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.58
1.06 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 2.51
Bad Attack Strength Bad
Bad Defense Strength Weak
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
500 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 71%
24 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cagliari
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.74 xG 0.87
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
450 Passes 232
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2025 Napoli Napoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
23.05.2025 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
15.09.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 0-4 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
25.02.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
16.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
21.02.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1 - 1
AWAY Cagliari
0.95 xG 0.70
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
549 Passes 306
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Napoli vs Cagliari
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 1-1 draw left Napoli and Cagliari with a point apiece. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Napoli at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, possession split 62% to 38% in Napoli's favour, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.95 to 0.70.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Napoli against 0.50 for Cagliari.

Napoli vs Cagliari Result & Final Score

Napoli 1 - 1 Cagliari in the Italy - Cup on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Napoli 68%, draw 21%, Cagliari 11%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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