Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities
Napoli v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals
Napoli vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Napoli 1-1 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics
a 1-1 draw left Napoli and Cagliari with a point apiece. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Napoli at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, possession split 62% to 38% in Napoli's favour, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.95 to 0.70.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Napoli against 0.50 for Cagliari.
Napoli vs Cagliari Result & Final Score
Napoli 1 - 1 Cagliari in the Italy - Cup on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Napoli 68%, draw 21%, Cagliari 11%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No went the other way.