Barnsley 3-0 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.33
Over 2.5
63%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.66
No
39%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
15%
7.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.95
X/1
14%
3.97
X/2
9%
11.75
X/X
10%
6.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.5
2/2
13%
8.36
2/X
6%
16.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.5 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.1pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
39%
-1.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
61%
+1.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.9pp
39%
BTTS No
44%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.76/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.32
+3% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
353 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 70%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
23.4 Crosses 16.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
3.53 xG 0.19
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
126 Passes 380
59% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-3 HT 0-3 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
14.02.2015 Crawley Town Crawley Town 5-1 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
09.08.2014 Barnsley Barnsley 0-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
3-0
AWAY Crawley Town
2.53 xG 1.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 400
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley cruised past Crawley Town 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barnsley as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, Barnsley had 44% of the ball to Crawley Town's 56%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.53 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Crawley Town led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Barnsley and 2.00 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Crawley Town?

Barnsley 3-0 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 50%, draw 22%, Crawley Town 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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