Burton Albion 0-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
17%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
23.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 35% vs market 32.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.24
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.66
X/2
10%
6.35
X/X
15%
4.04
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
19%
5.01
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.16/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.90
-13% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
245 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 61%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.0 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.23 xG 0.84
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
279 Passes 227
69% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-5 HT 1-3 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNTK
31.08.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
24.02.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-2 HT 0-2 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
11.11.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
13.02.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
21.11.2020 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-3 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
0-1
AWAY Northampton Town
0.79 xG 0.78
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
311 Passes 202
75% Pass Accuracy 63%
19 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town squeezed past Burton Albion 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Northampton Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Burton Albion had 57% of the ball to Northampton Town's 43%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.79 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burton Albion and 1.50 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Northampton Town?

Burton Albion 0-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burton Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 36%, draw 28%, Northampton Town 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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