Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.63
Over 2.5
63%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.86
2-3 Goals
42%
2.03
4-5 Goals
26%
2.5
6+ Goals
15%
5.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.61
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
19.3
X/1
19%
3.78
X/2
8%
16.1
X/X
13%
8.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.8
2/2
8%
11.1
2/X
4%
19.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
68%
-9.6pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.5pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.1pp
37%
Under 2.5
34%
+3.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
66%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 17%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.17/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.13
+9% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -20%
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
467 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
34.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.8 Crosses 13.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leicester City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.47 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 Passes 361
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Leicester City Leicester City 1-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
04.04.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 1-2 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
04.02.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-4 HT 2-3 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
23.04.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 0-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
05.12.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
21.02.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 0-2 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
2-1
AWAY Leicester City
1.56 xG 0.41
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
551 Passes 335
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa edged past Leicester City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 61% of the ball to Leicester City's 39%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.56 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aston Villa and 1.50 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Leicester City?

Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester City in the England - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 59%, draw 22%, Leicester City 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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