Leicester City 1-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 31 Aug 2024

Leicester City
1-2 HT 0-1
Aston Villa
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Leicester City vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
39%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.81
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 28% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.68
1/2
8%
23.15
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
10%
7.93
X/2
13%
4.43
X/X
18%
5.08
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.51
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+6.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
39%
Away Win
49%
-9.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leicester City v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leicester City EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 53%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -22%
1.27/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.02
+25% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 81%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
14.0 Crosses 26.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Leicester City vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leicester City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
337 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.04.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 1-2 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
04.02.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-4 HT 2-3 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
23.04.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 0-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
05.12.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
21.02.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 0-2 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
18.10.2020 Leicester City Leicester City 0-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Leicester City 1-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leicester City
1-2
AWAY Aston Villa
0.45 xG 1.55
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
457 Passes 318
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Leicester City vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over Leicester City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Aston Villa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Leicester City had 58% of the ball to Aston Villa's 42%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.45 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leicester City and 1.33 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Leicester City vs Aston Villa?

Leicester City 1-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 32%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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