Crystal Palace 1-1 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
6.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
14%
21.55
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
12%
7.76
X/2
14%
4.83
X/X
15%
5.81
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
18%
2.59
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.55 — our 14% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-1.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.5pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 52%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.25/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.17
-12% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +10%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 82%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
17.0 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Chelsea
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.70 xG 1.76
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
247 Passes 577
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
12.02.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-3 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
27.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 1-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
15.01.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
01.10.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-2 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
17.04.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
1-1
AWAY Chelsea
1.08 xG 1.24
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
260 Passes 487
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace and Chelsea couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chelsea at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 38% of the ball to Chelsea's 62%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.08 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.83 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?

Crystal Palace 1-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 29%, draw 25%, Chelsea 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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