Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.32
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
38%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
3.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.32
No
41%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
8.76
2-3 Goals
37%
2.38
4-5 Goals
30%
2.29
6+ Goals
12%
3.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.24
1/2
6%
17.6
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
12%
9.33
X/2
19%
4.9
X/X
13%
7.64
2/1
5%
30.0
2/2
13%
2.2
2/X
5%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
26%
+8.8pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.6pp
38%
Away Win
53%
-14.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
24%
+17.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
76%
-17.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
72%
-12.3pp
41%
BTTS No
28%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.45/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.22
+21% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +26%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 83%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.4
19.0 Crosses 17.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.70 xG 2.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
456 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-1 HT 1-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
22.05.2024 Tottenham Tottenham 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United HAZ
13.04.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-0 HT 2-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
10.12.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 4-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
23.04.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 6-1 HT 5-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
23.10.2022 Tottenham Tottenham 1-2 HT 0-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
1-2
AWAY Newcastle United
0.94 xG 2.53
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 10
377 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 28
25 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United nicked a narrow win over Tottenham 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Newcastle United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Tottenham had 57% of the ball to Newcastle United's 43%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.94 to 2.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Newcastle United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tottenham and 2.67 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Newcastle United?

Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 35%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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