Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
47%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.65
6+ Goals
13%
15.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.65 — our 24% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.24
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
8%
9.15
X/2
14%
4.15
X/X
13%
4.59
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.37
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-5.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 56%
+16% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.57/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.91
+13% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +29%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 82%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.1
18.6 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Arsenal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.32 xG 2.22
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
445 Passes 324
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 42
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 1-1 HT 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
06.04.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
17.12.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
14.05.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-3 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
31.12.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-4 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.11.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 1-3 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
AWAY Arsenal
1.52 xG 0.88
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
368 Passes 456
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 45% of the ball to Arsenal's 55%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.52 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.83 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 26%, draw 27%, Arsenal 47%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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