Crotone 1-1 Cavese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-11.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+9.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Cavese EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.66/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.26
+4% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
450 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Cavese
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
02.09.2024 Cavese Cavese 2-1 HT 1-1 Crotone Crotone İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
1-1
AWAY Cavese
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crotone vs Cavese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crotone and Cavese shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Crotone at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Crotone had 59% of the ball to Cavese's 41%, shots finished 12-7.

What was the final score of Crotone vs Cavese?

Crotone 1-1 Cavese in the Italy - Serie C on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs Cavese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Crotone 44%, draw 28%, Cavese 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Crotone) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crotone) ✓ Under 2.5
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