Gubbio 3-1 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.17
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
5.07
6+ Goals
8%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
0.94/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.30
-28% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lucchese
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 0-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
28.01.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
19.09.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
18.03.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 2-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
20.11.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 0-2 HT 0-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
01.05.2022 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
3-1
AWAY Lucchese
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gubbio got the better of Lucchese 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gubbio as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gubbio had 57% of the ball to Lucchese's 43%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gubbio had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gubbio and 0.00 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Lucchese?

Gubbio 3-1 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 44%, draw 28%, Lucchese 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gubbio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gubbio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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